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Ards vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Ards
Ards
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dundela
Dundela
A. Salley 13'
9/23/2022League #407League #407 · Round 8Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ards43%
×Draw26%
Dundela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ards
1.42
Dundela
1.14

Ards creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ards
1.00
Dundela
1.10

allows per match

Ards
1.17
Dundela
1.84

finishing

Ards+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ards ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ards or draw
70%
Ards or Dundela
74%
Draw or Dundela
57%

Winning margin

Ards wins by 2+
21%
Dundela wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ards 1+ goals
76%
Ards 2+ goals
41%
Ards 3+ goals
17%
Dundela 1+ goals
68%
Dundela 2+ goals
32%
Dundela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ards (draw refunded)
59%
Dundela (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ards attack 1.00 + Dundela defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dundela attack 1.10 + Ards defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ards scores more
43%
level
26%
Dundela scores more
30%

Ards at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Salley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ards vs Dundela

Ards beat Dundela 1-0 in League #407 on September 23, 2022.

Goals: A. Salley (13').

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.