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Arda Kardzhali vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
9/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arda Kardzhali52%
×Draw25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.58
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.96

Arda Kardzhali creates 65% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 69 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
77%
Arda Kardzhali or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
75%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
48%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
79%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
47%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
62%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
69%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
52%
level
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
23%

Arda Kardzhali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Arda Kardzhali beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-1 in First League on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.