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Arda Kardzhali vs Dunav Ruse — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
Preview
16:00
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
12/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Arena Arda
56%
Arda Kardzhali
model favours
56%23%21%

Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Arda Kardzhali56%
×Draw23%
Dunav Ruse21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.82
Dunav Ruse
1.04

Arda Kardzhali creates 75% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Dunav Ruse
0.97

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Dunav Ruse
2.19

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
79%
Arda Kardzhali or Dunav Ruse
77%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
44%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
32%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
84%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
54%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
27%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
65%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
28%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
72%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dunav Ruse attack 0.97 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
56%
level
23%
Dunav Ruse scores more
21%

Arda Kardzhali at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kardzhali
LDLWL
Ruse
DDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arda Kardzhali vs Dunav Ruse — Match Preview

Arda Kardzhali face Dunav Ruse on December 5, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arda Kardzhali host Dunav Ruse at Arena Arda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.