Arda Kardzhali 0–3 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Arda Kardzhali

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

CSKA 1948

Héliton 48'

N. Pišćević 29'

G. Rusev 18'

11/27/2023

First League · Round 3Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Arda Kardzhali39%

×Draw27%

CSKA 194834%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Arda Kardzhali

1.27

CSKA 1948

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

1.45

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

CSKA 1948

1.22

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

CSKA 1948

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

66%

Arda Kardzhali or CSKA 1948

73%

Draw or CSKA 1948

61%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

17%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

72%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

36%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

14%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

69%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

33%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

53%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

39%

level

27%

CSKA 1948 scores more

34%

Arda Kardzhali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

29'

32'

40'

46'

48'

60'

T. Yordanov← R. Tsonev

64'

N. Iliev← A. Vutov

71'

B. Karagaren← G. Rusev

72'

Steve Furtado

75'

I. Kokonov← S. Ivanov

75'

C. Hüseynov← L. Kotev

84'

P. Umarbayev← E. Tsenov

84'

R. Kirilov← Pedrinho

88'

Jalal Huseynov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ArdaCSKA

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots13

4Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0