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Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
12/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Arda Kardzhali39%
×Draw27%
CSKA 194834%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.27
CSKA 1948
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
CSKA 1948
1.22

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
CSKA 1948
1.09

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
66%
Arda Kardzhali or CSKA 1948
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948
61%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
17%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
72%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
36%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
14%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
53%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
39%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 scores more
34%

Arda Kardzhali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948

Arda Kardzhali and CSKA 1948 drew 1-1 in First League on December 11, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.