Arda Kardzhali 3–3 Cherno More Varna

Arda Kardzhali

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cherno More Varna

7/15/2023

First League · Round 1Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali41%

×Draw28%

Cherno More Varna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchCherno More Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Arda Kardzhali

1.27

Cherno More Varna

1.08

Arda Kardzhali creates 18% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Cherno More Varna

1.06

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Cherno More Varna

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Cherno More Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

69%

Arda Kardzhali or Cherno More Varna

72%

Draw or Cherno More Varna

59%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

18%

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

72%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

36%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

14%

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

66%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

29%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

56%

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

41%

level

28%

Cherno More Varna scores more

31%

Arda Kardzhali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff