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Araz vs Neftchi Baku — Premyer Liqa 2019

Araz
Araz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
2/13/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 22Dalğa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Araz31%
×Draw28%
Neftchi Baku41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz
1.08
Neftchi Baku
1.28

Neftchi Baku creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 108 away

creates per match

Araz
1.08
Neftchi Baku
1.38

allows per match

Araz
1.19
Neftchi Baku
1.09

finishing

Araz+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Araz or draw
59%
Araz or Neftchi Baku
72%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
69%

Winning margin

Araz wins by 2+
12%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Araz 1+ goals
66%
Araz 2+ goals
29%
Araz 3+ goals
10%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
72%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
37%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Araz (draw refunded)
43%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz attack 1.08 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Araz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Araz scores more
31%
level
28%
Neftchi Baku scores more
41%

Neftchi Baku at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araz vs Neftchi Baku

Araz beat Neftchi Baku 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Dalğa Arena in Baku.