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Araz vs Kapaz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Araz
Araz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kapaz
Kapaz
11/10/2023Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 13Dalğa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Araz49%
×Draw26%
Kapaz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz
1.52
Kapaz
1.03

Araz creates 48% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 73 away

creates per match

Araz
1.08
Kapaz
0.88

allows per match

Araz
1.19
Kapaz
1.96

finishing

Araz+0.00on par
Kapaz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz ↓

Kapaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Araz or draw
74%
Araz or Kapaz
74%
Draw or Kapaz
51%

Winning margin

Araz wins by 2+
25%
Kapaz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Araz 1+ goals
78%
Araz 2+ goals
45%
Araz 3+ goals
20%
Kapaz 1+ goals
64%
Kapaz 2+ goals
28%
Kapaz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Araz (draw refunded)
65%
Kapaz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Kapaz away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz attack 1.08 + Kapaz defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kapaz attack 0.88 + Araz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Araz scores more
49%
level
26%
Kapaz scores more
26%

Araz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Araz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araz vs Kapaz

Kapaz beat Araz 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Dalğa Arena in Baku.