Ararat-Armenia vs Shamrock Rovers

Ararat-Armenia

Preview

17:00

Shamrock Rovers

7/21/2026

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundFootball Academy Stadium

68%

Ararat-Armenia

model favours

68%24%8%

Shamrock Rovers score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

71%

under 2.5 goals

23%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ararat-Armenia68%

×Draw24%

Shamrock Rovers8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.34

Ararat-Armenia

1.54

Shamrock Rovers

0.34

Ararat-Armenia creates 353% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.00

0.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

1.33

Shamrock Rovers

0.00

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

0.67

Shamrock Rovers

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

92%

Ararat-Armenia or Shamrock Rovers

76%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

32%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

38%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

79%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

45%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

20%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

29%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

5%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

90%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.33 + Shamrock Rovers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shamrock Rovers attack 0.00 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

68%

level

24%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

8%

Ararat-Armenia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

38% of Shamrock Rovers’s goals come after the 75th minute
Ararat-Armenia and Shamrock Rovers have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Ararat-Armenia

LWDDW

Rovers

DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff