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Ararat-Armenia vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Preview
15:00
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
8/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Football Academy Stadium
Big match
46%
Ararat-Armenia
model favours
46%25%29%

Ararat-Armenia win just 45% against the top half (vs 78% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ararat-Armenia46%
×Draw25%
FC Urartu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia
1.54
FC Urartu
1.16

Ararat-Armenia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia
2.06
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia
0.82
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw
71%
Ararat-Armenia or FC Urartu
75%
Draw or FC Urartu
54%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
23%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
79%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
45%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
20%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
69%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
32%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
62%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more
46%
level
25%
FC Urartu scores more
29%

Ararat-Armenia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Urartu win just 34% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ararat-Armenia
LWDDW
Urartu
WLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ararat-Armenia vs FC Urartu — Match Preview

Ararat-Armenia face FC Urartu on August 7, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ararat-Armenia host FC Urartu at Football Academy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.