Ararat-Armenia 0–1 FC Noah: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Noah

3/15/2024

Premier League · Round 25Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ararat-Armenia50%

×Draw25%

FC Noah26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchFC Noah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.10

Ararat-Armenia

1.63

FC Noah

1.10

Ararat-Armenia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 105 away

2.06

creates per match

1.39

0.82

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

2.06

FC Noah

1.39

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

0.82

FC Noah

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

FC Noah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

74%

Ararat-Armenia or FC Noah

75%

Draw or FC Noah

50%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

26%

FC Noah wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

80%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

48%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

22%

FC Noah 1+ goals

67%

FC Noah 2+ goals

30%

FC Noah 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

66%

FC Noah (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

50%

level

25%

FC Noah scores more

26%

Ararat-Armenia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff