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Ararat-Armenia vs BKMA — Premier League 2019

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BKMA
BKMA
11/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Ararat-Armenia61%
×Draw22%
BKMA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia
1.90
BKMA
0.90

Ararat-Armenia creates 111% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia
2.06
BKMA
0.98

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia
0.82
BKMA
1.73

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw
83%
Ararat-Armenia or BKMA
78%
Draw or BKMA
39%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
36%
BKMA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
85%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
56%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
29%
BKMA 1+ goals
59%
BKMA 2+ goals
23%
BKMA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
78%
BKMA (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

BKMA away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + BKMA defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.90

BKMA attack 0.98 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more
61%
level
22%
BKMA scores more
17%

Ararat-Armenia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia vs BKMA

Ararat-Armenia beat BKMA 4-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.