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Ararat-Armenia II vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
CANC
09:00
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
3/16/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II51%
×Draw21%
Alashkert II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
2.19
Alashkert II
1.60

Ararat-Armenia II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
72%
Ararat-Armenia II or Alashkert II
79%
Draw or Alashkert II
49%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
30%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
89%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
64%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
37%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
80%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
47%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
64%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.19

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
51%
level
21%
Alashkert II scores more
28%

Ararat-Armenia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ararat-Armenia II host Alashkert II

March 16, 2021: Ararat-Armenia II take on Alashkert II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ararat-Armenia II host Alashkert II at Yerevan Football Academy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.