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Aral vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
Preview
13:00
BuxDu
BuxDu
8/15/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 15
81%
Aral
model favours
81%15%4%

Aral sit 1, BuxDu 12 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
21%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aral81%
×Draw15%
BuxDu4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
2.15
BuxDu
0.27

Aral creates 696% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aral
1.90
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Aral
0.53
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aral or draw
96%
Aral or BuxDu
85%
Draw or BuxDu
19%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
56%
BuxDu wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
88%
Aral 2+ goals
63%
Aral 3+ goals
36%
BuxDu 1+ goals
24%
BuxDu 2+ goals
3%
BuxDu 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
96%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Aral scores more
81%
level
15%
BuxDu scores more
4%

Aral at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Aral
WWWWW
BuxDu
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aral face BuxDu (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Aral hosting BuxDu. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.