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Aragua FC vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
3/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aragua FC40%
×Draw28%
Yaracuyanos FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.23
Yaracuyanos FC
1.06

Aragua FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 80 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
1.19
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.68
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
68%
Aragua FC or Yaracuyanos FC
72%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
60%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
17%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
71%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
35%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
13%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
65%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
29%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
56%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.19 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Aragua FC defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aragua FC scores more
40%
level
28%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
32%

Aragua FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragua FC vs Yaracuyanos FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat Aragua FC 2-0 in Segunda División on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez in Maracay.