Aragua FC 1–1 Marítimo: Result & Stats

Aragua FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Marítimo

3/30/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aragua FC40%

×Draw30%

Marítimo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aragua FCExpected goals in this matchMarítimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.95

Aragua FC

1.13

Marítimo

0.95

Aragua FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

1.22

0.68

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Aragua FC

1.19

Marítimo

1.22

allows per match

Aragua FC

0.68

Marítimo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par

Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Marítimo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw

70%

Aragua FC or Marítimo

70%

Draw or Marítimo

60%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+

16%

Marítimo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals

68%

Aragua FC 2+ goals

31%

Aragua FC 3+ goals

11%

Marítimo 1+ goals

61%

Marítimo 2+ goals

25%

Marítimo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)

57%

Marítimo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.19 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Aragua FC defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aragua FC scores more

40%

level

30%

Marítimo scores more

30%

Aragua FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff