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Aragua FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
8/16/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aragua FC51%
×Draw24%
Llaneros de Guanare26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.73
Llaneros de Guanare
1.16

Aragua FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
0.96
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.87
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
74%
Aragua FC or Llaneros de Guanare
76%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
49%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
27%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
82%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
52%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
25%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
69%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
32%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
66%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 0.96 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Aragua FC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aragua FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
26%

Aragua FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aragua FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Match Preview

Aragua FC face Llaneros de Guanare on August 16, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.