APR 0–0 Gasogi United: Result & Stats

APR

FT

0 – 0

Gasogi United

12/5/2023

National Soccer League · Round 13Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

APR55%

×Draw26%

Gasogi United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APRExpected goals in this matchGasogi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.76

APR

1.51

Gasogi United

0.76

APR creates 99% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

1.81

creates per match

0.93

0.58

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

APR

1.81

Gasogi United

0.93

allows per match

APR

0.58

Gasogi United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APR+0.00on par

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Gasogi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

APR or draw

81%

APR or Gasogi United

74%

Draw or Gasogi United

45%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+

29%

Gasogi United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals

78%

APR 2+ goals

44%

APR 3+ goals

19%

Gasogi United 1+ goals

53%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

18%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)

75%

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

APR scores more

55%

level

26%

Gasogi United scores more

19%

APR at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff