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Apolonia Fier vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
3/3/20241st Division1st Division · Round 23Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Apolonia Fier56%
×Draw24%
Kastrioti Krujë21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

Apolonia Fier creates 82% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
79%
Apolonia Fier or Kastrioti Krujë
76%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
44%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
31%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
82%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
52%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
25%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
61%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
25%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
73%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
56%
level
24%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
21%

Apolonia Fier at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Apolonia Fier 2–0 Kastrioti Krujë

Apolonia Fier beat Kastrioti Krujë 2-0 in 1st Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fier.