Apollon Limassol 0–1 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AEK Larnaca

11/12/2023

1. Division · Round 11Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Apollon Limassol41%

×Draw27%

AEK Larnaca32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon LimassolExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.15

Apollon Limassol

1.34

AEK Larnaca

1.15

Apollon Limassol creates 17% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

1.62

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Apollon Limassol

1.62

AEK Larnaca

1.29

allows per match

Apollon Limassol

1.00

AEK Larnaca

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw

68%

Apollon Limassol or AEK Larnaca

73%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

59%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

19%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

74%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

39%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

15%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

68%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

32%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

56%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 119 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 1.62 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more

41%

level

27%

AEK Larnaca scores more

32%

Apollon Limassol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff