APEJES Academy 2–1 UMS de Loum: Result & Stats

APEJES Academy

FT

2 – 1

UMS de Loum

1/5/2020

Elite One · Round 16Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

APEJES Academy36%

×Draw30%

UMS de Loum34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APEJES AcademyExpected goals in this matchUMS de Loum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.00

APEJES Academy

1.04

UMS de Loum

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 66 away

1.20

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

APEJES Academy

1.20

UMS de Loum

0.92

allows per match

APEJES Academy

1.07

UMS de Loum

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

UMS de Loum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw

66%

APEJES Academy or UMS de Loum

70%

Draw or UMS de Loum

64%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

14%

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

65%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

28%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

9%

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

63%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

26%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

51%

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

APEJES Academy scores more

36%

level

30%

UMS de Loum scores more

34%

APEJES Academy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff