Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

APEJES Academy vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
0 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
3/26/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

APEJES Academy41%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.29
Fortuna Mfou
1.08

APEJES Academy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 96 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
69%
APEJES Academy or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
59%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
19%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
72%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
37%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
57%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
41%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
31%

APEJES Academy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: APEJES Academy 0–1 Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat APEJES Academy 1-0 in Elite One on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma in Douala.