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APEJES Academy vs Colombe — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
1 – 0
Colombe
Colombe
4/14/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 15Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

APEJES Academy34%
×Draw29%
Colombe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.06
Colombe
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 92 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
Colombe
1.18

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
Colombe
0.93

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Colombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
63%
APEJES Academy or Colombe
71%
Draw or Colombe
66%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
13%
Colombe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
65%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
29%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
9%
Colombe 1+ goals
68%
Colombe 2+ goals
31%
Colombe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
48%
Colombe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Colombe attack 1.18 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
34%
level
29%
Colombe scores more
37%

Colombe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APEJES Academy vs Colombe

APEJES Academy beat Colombe 1-0 in Elite One on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé).