Antwerp 6–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Standard Liege

11/11/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 14Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Antwerp45%

×Draw26%

Standard Liege29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

Antwerp

1.45

Standard Liege

1.11

Antwerp creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.05

1.17

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Antwerp

1.41

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

Antwerp

1.17

Standard Liege

1.49

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Antwerp-0.01on par

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

71%

Antwerp or Standard Liege

74%

Draw or Standard Liege

55%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

22%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

77%

Antwerp 2+ goals

42%

Antwerp 3+ goals

18%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

67%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

30%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

61%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.41 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Antwerp scores more

45%

level

26%

Standard Liege scores more

29%

Antwerp at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff