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Antwerp vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
11/9/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Antwerp52%
×Draw24%
Oostende24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.74
Oostende
1.09

Antwerp creates 60% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 86 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.69
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

Antwerp
1.17
Oostende
1.79

finishing

Antwerp+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
76%
Antwerp or Oostende
76%
Draw or Oostende
48%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
29%
Oostende wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
82%
Antwerp 2+ goals
52%
Antwerp 3+ goals
25%
Oostende 1+ goals
66%
Oostende 2+ goals
30%
Oostende 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
69%
Oostende (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.69 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Oostende attack 1.02 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Antwerp scores more
52%
level
24%
Oostende scores more
24%

Antwerp at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Antwerp 2–0 Oostende

Antwerp beat Oostende 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 9, 2018.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Antwerp.