Antwerp 2–2 KVC Westerlo: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

KVC Westerlo

12/23/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Antwerp47%

×Draw24%

KVC Westerlo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchKVC Westerlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Antwerp

1.71

KVC Westerlo

1.29

Antwerp creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

1.41

creates per match

1.42

1.17

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Antwerp

1.41

KVC Westerlo

1.42

allows per match

Antwerp

1.17

KVC Westerlo

2.01

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Antwerp-0.01on par

KVC Westerlo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

KVC Westerlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

71%

Antwerp or KVC Westerlo

76%

Draw or KVC Westerlo

53%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

25%

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

82%

Antwerp 2+ goals

51%

Antwerp 3+ goals

24%

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals

72%

KVC Westerlo 2+ goals

37%

KVC Westerlo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

62%

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.01 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.41 + KVC Westerlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.71

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Antwerp scores more

47%

level

24%

KVC Westerlo scores more

29%

Antwerp at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff