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Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
4/9/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 32Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Antwerp41%
×Draw25%
Cercle Brugge34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.31

Antwerp creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.41
Cercle Brugge
1.45

allows per match

Antwerp
1.17
Cercle Brugge
1.53

finishing

Antwerp-0.01on par
Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
66%
Antwerp or Cercle Brugge
75%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
59%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
20%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
77%
Antwerp 2+ goals
43%
Antwerp 3+ goals
18%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
73%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
38%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
55%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.41 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Antwerp scores more
41%
level
25%
Cercle Brugge scores more
34%

Antwerp at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge

Antwerp beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Deurne.