Antwerp 1–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Brugge

M. Balikwisha 48'

K. Denkey 76'

4/9/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 34Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Antwerp38%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.39

Antwerp

1.41

Cercle Brugge

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

1.32

creates per match

1.53

1.25

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Antwerp

1.32

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

Antwerp

1.25

Cercle Brugge

1.49

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Antwerp+0.09on par

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

63%

Antwerp or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

62%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

18%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

76%

Antwerp 2+ goals

41%

Antwerp 3+ goals

17%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

75%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

40%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

51%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 17 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.32 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Antwerp defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Antwerp scores more

38%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

37%

Antwerp at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Balikwisha

Antwerp · M

7.9

Match Events

39'

Vitinho

48'

M. Balikwisha↳ M. Frey

54'

S. Miangué← Vitinho

54'

Leonardo Lopes← C. Vanhoutte

69'

P. Gerkens← B. Manuel

75'

Kévin DenkeyPenalty cancelled

76'

K. Denkey

77'

M. Samatta← K. Miyoshi

77'

O. Deman← T. Somers

87'

J. Eggestein← M. Balikwisha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntwerpCercle

Overview

67%Possession33%

24Total Shots5

9Corners2

6Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots5

7On Target1

13Off Target3

4Blocked1

12Inside Box3

12Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

517Total Passes262

385Accurate Passes147

74%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides7