Antwerp 1–0 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Brugge

1/20/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Antwerp40%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.32

Antwerp

1.44

Cercle Brugge

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.36

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Antwerp

1.36

Cercle Brugge

1.40

allows per match

Antwerp

1.25

Cercle Brugge

1.51

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Antwerp+0.02on par

Cercle Brugge-0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

65%

Antwerp or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

60%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

19%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

76%

Antwerp 2+ goals

42%

Antwerp 3+ goals

18%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

73%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

38%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

54%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.36 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cercle Brugge attack 1.40 + Antwerp defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Antwerp scores more

40%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

35%

Antwerp at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff