Antwerp 2–0 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

M. Frey 82'

A. Yusuf 63'

11/7/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 14Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Antwerp46%

×Draw25%

Anderlecht29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.23

Antwerp

1.61

Anderlecht

1.23

Antwerp creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.41

creates per match

1.29

1.17

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Antwerp

1.41

Anderlecht

1.29

allows per match

Antwerp

1.17

Anderlecht

1.81

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Antwerp-0.01on par

Anderlecht-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

71%

Antwerp or Anderlecht

75%

Draw or Anderlecht

54%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

24%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

80%

Antwerp 2+ goals

48%

Antwerp 3+ goals

22%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

71%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

35%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

61%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.81 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.41 + Anderlecht defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Anderlecht attack 1.29 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Antwerp scores more

46%

level

25%

Anderlecht scores more

29%

Antwerp at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

M. Frey

Antwerp · F

8.3

Match Events

31'

Josh Cullen

59'

F. Amuzu← Y. Verschaeren

59'

B. Raman← J. Zirkzee

63'

A. Yusuf↳ M. Frey

74'

B. Mykhaylichenko← K. Sardella

74'

L. Refaelov← A. Ait El Hadj

75'

P. Gerkens← P. Dwomoh

80'

Michael FreyGoal cancelled

81'

Wesley Hoedt

82'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

82'

M. Frey

83'

M. Ashimeru← K. Olsson

86'

V. Fischer← M. Balikwisha

86'

M. Samatta← B. Manuel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntwerpAnderlecht

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots8

2Corners8

7Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target4

1Blocked1

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

456Total Passes527

379Accurate Passes445

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1