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Antigua GFC vs Suchitepéquez — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
Preview
20:00
Suchitepéquez
Suchitepéquez
9/13/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Round 9Estadio Pensativo
56%
Antigua GFC
model favours
56%21%23%

Antigua GFC win 80% of their home games

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Antigua GFC56%
×Draw21%
Suchitepéquez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
2.08
Suchitepéquez
1.26

Antigua GFC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 3 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Suchitepéquez
1.67

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Suchitepéquez
2.33

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Suchitepéquez+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Suchitepéquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
77%
Antigua GFC or Suchitepéquez
79%
Draw or Suchitepéquez
44%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
34%
Suchitepéquez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
87%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
61%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
34%
Suchitepéquez 1+ goals
72%
Suchitepéquez 2+ goals
36%
Suchitepéquez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
71%
Suchitepéquez (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Suchitepéquez away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Suchitepéquez defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Suchitepéquez attack 1.67 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
56%
level
21%
Suchitepéquez scores more
23%

Antigua GFC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Antigua GFC and Suchitepéquez have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
GFC
LWDWL
Suchitepéquez
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antigua GFC vs Suchitepéquez — Match Preview

Antigua GFC face Suchitepéquez on September 13, 2026 in this Liga Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Antigua GFC host Suchitepéquez at Estadio Pensativo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.