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Antigua GFC vs Municipal — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Municipal
Municipal
2/29/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 8Estadio Pensativo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Antigua GFC46%
×Draw27%
Municipal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
1.39
Municipal
0.98

Antigua GFC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 161 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Municipal
1.10

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Municipal
0.93

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
73%
Antigua GFC or Municipal
73%
Draw or Municipal
54%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
22%
Municipal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
75%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
40%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
16%
Municipal 1+ goals
62%
Municipal 2+ goals
26%
Municipal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
64%
Municipal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Municipal away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Municipal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Municipal attack 1.10 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
46%
level
27%
Municipal scores more
27%

Antigua GFC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Antigua GFC 1–0 Municipal

Antigua GFC beat Municipal 1-0 in Liga Nacional on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pensativo in Antigua.