Carmarthen Town 2–5 Afan Lido: Result & Stats

Carmarthen Town

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Afan Lido

S. Williams 57'

C. Thomas 43'

J. Hood 84', 23'

A. Hill 55', 45' (pen)

M. Jones 16'

11/25/2011

League #110 · Round 18Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carmarthen Town54%

×Draw19%

Afan Lido27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carmarthen TownExpected goals in this matchAfan Lido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.80

Carmarthen Town

2.58

Afan Lido

1.80

Carmarthen Town creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Carmarthen Town

2.25

Afan Lido

1.60

allows per match

Carmarthen Town

2.00

Afan Lido

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par

Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmarthen Town ↓

Afan Lido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Carmarthen Town or draw

73%

Carmarthen Town or Afan Lido

81%

Draw or Afan Lido

46%

Winning margin

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+

35%

Afan Lido wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals

92%

Carmarthen Town 2+ goals

72%

Carmarthen Town 3+ goals

47%

Afan Lido 1+ goals

83%

Afan Lido 2+ goals

54%

Afan Lido 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)

67%

Afan Lido (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmarthen Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmarthen Town attack 2.25 + Afan Lido defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.58

Afan Lido attack 1.60 + Carmarthen Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Carmarthen Town scores more

54%

level

19%

Afan Lido scores more

27%

Carmarthen Town at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Jones

23'

J. Hood

43'

C. Thomas

45'

A. HillPenalty

46'

S. Williams← J. Christopher

55'

A. Hill

57'

S. Williams

67'

N. Palmer← K. Howard

83'

S. Pockett← L. Jeanne

83'

D. Thomas← C. Payne

84'

J. Hood

87'

A. Gammond← A. Hill

89'

A. Williams← N. Harrhy

Carmarthen

Afan

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

46'▲S. Williams←▼J. Christopher

67'▲N. Palmer←▼K. Howard

89'▲A. Williams←▼N. Harrhy

Carmarthen Town substitutes

WilliamsPalmerWilliamsBerryDalling

83'▲S. Pockett←▼L. Jeanne

83'▲D. Thomas←▼C. Payne

87'▲A. Gammond←▼A. Hill

Afan Lido substitutes

PockettThomasGammondHall