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Antequera vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
Preview
16:00
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
11/1/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10
Big match
38%
Antequera
model favours
38%27%35%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera38%
×Draw27%
Real Murcia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.25
Real Murcia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
65%
Antequera or Real Murcia
73%
Draw or Real Murcia
62%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
16%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
71%
Antequera 2+ goals
36%
Antequera 3+ goals
13%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
70%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
33%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
52%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Antequera scores more
38%
level
27%
Real Murcia scores more
35%

Antequera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Antequera
WWWLW
Murcia
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antequera face Real Murcia (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Antequera hosting Real Murcia. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.