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Antequera vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
Preview
16:00
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
11/22/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13
47%
Antequera
model favours
47%25%27%

Juventud Torremolinos win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Antequera47%
×Draw25%
Juventud Torremolinos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.56
Juventud Torremolinos
1.12

Antequera creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
73%
Antequera or Juventud Torremolinos
75%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
53%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
24%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
79%
Antequera 2+ goals
46%
Antequera 3+ goals
21%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
67%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
31%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
63%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Antequera scores more
47%
level
25%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
27%

Antequera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Antequera
WWWLW
Torremolinos
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Antequera host Juventud Torremolinos

November 22, 2026: Antequera take on Juventud Torremolinos in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.