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Antequera vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
Preview
15:00
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
5/16/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37
46%
Antequera
model favours
46%28%26%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera46%
×Draw28%
Gimnastic26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.36
Gimnastic
0.95

Antequera creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Gimnastic
0.72

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Gimnastic
1.18

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
74%
Antequera or Gimnastic
72%
Draw or Gimnastic
54%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
22%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
74%
Antequera 2+ goals
39%
Antequera 3+ goals
16%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
61%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
25%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
64%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Antequera scores more
46%
level
28%
Gimnastic scores more
26%

Antequera at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Antequera
WWWLW
Gimnastic
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antequera vs Gimnastic — Match Preview

Antequera face Gimnastic on May 16, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.