Annan Athletic 4–0 Elgin City: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Elgin City

7/16/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Annan Athletic54%

×Draw20%

Elgin City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.63

Annan Athletic

2.37

Elgin City

1.63

Annan Athletic creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.73

2.53

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.40

Elgin City

0.73

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.53

Elgin City

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Elgin City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

74%

Annan Athletic or Elgin City

80%

Draw or Elgin City

46%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

33%

Elgin City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

91%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

68%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

42%

Elgin City 1+ goals

80%

Elgin City 2+ goals

48%

Elgin City 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

67%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Elgin City away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.40 + Elgin City defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Elgin City attack 0.73 + Annan Athletic defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

54%

level

20%

Elgin City scores more

26%

Annan Athletic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff