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Ann Arbor vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
PST
19:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
5/30/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15Concordia University Ann Arbor (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ann Arbor52%
×Draw24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ann Arbor
1.66
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.02

Ann Arbor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ann Arbor
2.12
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Ann Arbor
1.04
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw
77%
Ann Arbor or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
76%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
48%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+
28%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals
81%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
49%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
23%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
64%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
27%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
69%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 2.12 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Ann Arbor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ann Arbor scores more
52%
level
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
23%

Ann Arbor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ann Arbor vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — Match Preview

Ann Arbor face Cincinnati Dutch Lions on May 30, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ann Arbor host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at Concordia University Ann Arbor (Ann Arbor, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.