Anguiano 1–2 Varea: Result & Stats

Anguiano

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Varea

10/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Anguiano39%

×Draw25%

Varea36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnguianoExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Anguiano

1.48

Varea

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

2.00

creates per match

1.81

1.03

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Anguiano

2.00

Varea

1.81

allows per match

Anguiano

1.03

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Varea →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw

64%

Anguiano or Varea

75%

Draw or Varea

61%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+

19%

Varea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals

77%

Anguiano 2+ goals

43%

Anguiano 3+ goals

19%

Varea 1+ goals

76%

Varea 2+ goals

41%

Varea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)

52%

Varea (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

Varea attack 1.81 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anguiano scores more

39%

level

25%

Varea scores more

36%

Anguiano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff