Anguiano 3–2 Náxara: Result & Stats

Anguiano

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Náxara

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Anguiano34%

×Draw23%

Náxara43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnguianoExpected goals in this matchNáxara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.76

Anguiano

1.54

Náxara

1.76

Náxara creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

2.00

creates per match

2.49

1.03

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Anguiano

2.00

Náxara

2.49

allows per match

Anguiano

1.03

Náxara

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par

Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Náxara →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw

57%

Anguiano or Náxara

77%

Draw or Náxara

66%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+

16%

Náxara wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals

79%

Anguiano 2+ goals

45%

Anguiano 3+ goals

20%

Náxara 1+ goals

83%

Náxara 2+ goals

52%

Náxara 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)

44%

Náxara (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Náxara attack 2.49 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anguiano scores more

34%

level

23%

Náxara scores more

43%

Náxara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff