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Anguiano vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Anguiano
Anguiano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Calahorra II
Calahorra II
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Estadio Isla Anguiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Anguiano46%
×Draw25%
Calahorra II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anguiano
1.61
Calahorra II
1.25

Anguiano creates 29% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Anguiano
2.00
Calahorra II
1.48

allows per match

Anguiano
1.03
Calahorra II
1.23

finishing

Anguiano+0.00on par
Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anguiano ↓

Calahorra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anguiano or draw
70%
Anguiano or Calahorra II
75%
Draw or Calahorra II
54%

Winning margin

Anguiano wins by 2+
23%
Calahorra II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anguiano 1+ goals
80%
Anguiano 2+ goals
48%
Anguiano 3+ goals
22%
Calahorra II 1+ goals
71%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
36%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Anguiano (draw refunded)
61%
Calahorra II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anguiano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anguiano attack 2.00 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Anguiano defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Anguiano scores more
46%
level
25%
Calahorra II scores more
30%

Anguiano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Anguiano 3–2 Calahorra II

Anguiano beat Calahorra II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Isla Anguiano in Anguiano.