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Angelholms FF vs Tvååker — Svenska Cupen 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Tvååker
Tvååker
6/30/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundÄnglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Angelholms FF6%
×Draw12%
Tvååker82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
0.60
Tvååker
2.80

Tvååker creates 367% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
0.80
Tvååker
2.40

allows per match

Angelholms FF
3.20
Tvååker
0.40

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
Tvååker+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–110%
0–213%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
18%
Angelholms FF or Tvååker
88%
Draw or Tvååker
94%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
1%
Tvååker wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
45%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
12%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
2%
Tvååker 1+ goals
94%
Tvååker 2+ goals
76%
Tvååker 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
6%
Tvååker (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Tvååker away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 0.80 + Tvååker defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.60

Tvååker attack 2.40 + Angelholms FF defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
6%
level
12%
Tvååker scores more
82%

Tvååker at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angelholms FF vs Tvååker

Tvååker beat Angelholms FF 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.