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Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo — Ettan - Södra 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
Preview
11:00
AFC Malmo
AFC Malmo
8/1/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 15
55%
AFC Malmo
model favours
22%23%55%

68% of Angelholms FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Angelholms FF22%
×Draw23%
AFC Malmo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
1.08
AFC Malmo
1.85

AFC Malmo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 6 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
1.33
AFC Malmo
2.33

allows per match

Angelholms FF
1.38
AFC Malmo
0.83

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
AFC Malmo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

AFC Malmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
45%
Angelholms FF or AFC Malmo
77%
Draw or AFC Malmo
78%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
8%
AFC Malmo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
66%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
29%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
10%
AFC Malmo 1+ goals
84%
AFC Malmo 2+ goals
55%
AFC Malmo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
28%
AFC Malmo (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

AFC Malmo away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.33 + AFC Malmo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

AFC Malmo attack 2.33 + Angelholms FF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
22%
level
23%
AFC Malmo scores more
55%

AFC Malmo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Malmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of Angelholms FF’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Angelholms FF and AFC Malmo have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FF
DWLWD
Malmo
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Angelholms FF host AFC Malmo

August 1, 2026: Angelholms FF take on AFC Malmo in Ettan - Södra. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.