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Angel City W vs Washington Spirit W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
Preview
01:00
Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
8/17/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageBMO Stadium
Big match
39%
Washington Spirit W
model favours
35%27%39%

Washington Spirit W score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W35%
×Draw27%
Washington Spirit W39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.24
Washington Spirit W
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Washington Spirit W
1.27

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Washington Spirit W
1.18

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Washington Spirit W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
61%
Angel City W or Washington Spirit W
73%
Draw or Washington Spirit W
65%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
15%
Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
71%
Angel City W 2+ goals
35%
Angel City W 3+ goals
13%
Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
73%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
38%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
47%
Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Washington Spirit W attack 1.27 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angel City W scores more
35%
level
27%
Washington Spirit W scores more
39%

Washington Spirit W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Washington Spirit W outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Angel City W
Balanced
Washington Spirit W
Defensively solid
52%Possession53%
78%Pass accuracy79%
11.1Shots12.9
1.62xGBiggest gap1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Angel City WWashington Spirit W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Angel City W
1
Draws
4
Washington Spirit W
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
2–24–31–22–41–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLL
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Angel City W face Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Angel City W hosting Washington Spirit W. Match starts August 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Angel City W host Washington Spirit W at BMO Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.