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Angel City W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
Preview
01:00
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
7/27/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageBMO Stadium
Big match
44%
Angel City W
model favours
44%25%30%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W44%
×Draw25%
Racing Louisville W30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.52
Racing Louisville W
1.21

Angel City W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 67 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Racing Louisville W
1.03

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Racing Louisville W
1.73

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
70%
Angel City W or Racing Louisville W
75%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
56%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
22%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
78%
Angel City W 2+ goals
45%
Angel City W 3+ goals
20%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
70%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
34%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
59%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Angel City W scores more
44%
level
25%
Racing Louisville W scores more
30%

Angel City W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings
  • Angel City W sit 1, Racing Louisville W 16 in the table
  • Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Racing Louisville W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Angel City W
Balanced
Racing Louisville W
Direct / counter-attacking
52%PossessionBiggest gap44%
78%Pass accuracy74%
11.1Shots13.0
1.62xG1.80
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Angel City WRacing Louisville W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Angel City W
2
Draws
4
Racing Louisville W
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 88%
0–12–31–23–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLL
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Angel City W host Racing Louisville W

July 27, 2026: Angel City W take on Racing Louisville W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Angel City W host Racing Louisville W at BMO Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.