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Angel City W vs Boston Legacy W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
Preview
22:00
Boston Legacy W
Boston Legacy W
11/1/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageBMO Stadium
Big match
45%
Angel City W
model favours
45%28%27%

Top-of-the-table clash — Angel City W 1 vs Boston Legacy W 4

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Angel City W45%
×Draw28%
Boston Legacy W27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.31
Boston Legacy W
0.94

Angel City W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 6 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Boston Legacy W
0.50

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Boston Legacy W
1.33

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Boston Legacy W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Boston Legacy W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
73%
Angel City W or Boston Legacy W
72%
Draw or Boston Legacy W
55%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
21%
Boston Legacy W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
73%
Angel City W 2+ goals
38%
Angel City W 3+ goals
14%
Boston Legacy W 1+ goals
61%
Boston Legacy W 2+ goals
24%
Boston Legacy W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
63%
Boston Legacy W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Boston Legacy W away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Boston Legacy W attack 0.50 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Angel City W scores more
45%
level
28%
Boston Legacy W scores more
27%

Angel City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Angel City W and Boston Legacy W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLL
W
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Angel City W face Boston Legacy W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Angel City W hosting Boston Legacy W. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Angel City W host Boston Legacy W at BMO Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.