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Andijan vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Andijan
Andijan
Preview
15:00
Nasaf
Nasaf
9/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Bobur Arena
Big match
42%
Nasaf
model favours
30%28%42%
1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Andijan30%
×Draw28%
Nasaf42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andijan
1.03
Nasaf
1.29

Nasaf creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 95 away

creates per match

Andijan
1.19
Nasaf
1.31

allows per match

Andijan
1.26
Nasaf
0.88

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Andijan or draw
58%
Andijan or Nasaf
72%
Draw or Nasaf
70%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+
11%
Nasaf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals
64%
Andijan 2+ goals
28%
Andijan 3+ goals
9%
Nasaf 1+ goals
72%
Nasaf 2+ goals
37%
Nasaf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)
41%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Andijan scores more
30%
level
28%
Nasaf scores more
42%

Nasaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Andijan
DLDWW
Nasaf
DWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Andijan vs Nasaf — Match Preview

Andijan face Nasaf on September 18, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Andijan host Nasaf at Bobur Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.