Andijan 0–0 Nasaf: Result & Stats | Super League

Andijan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nasaf

7/28/2023

Super League · Round 14Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Andijan30%

×Draw28%

Nasaf42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.29

Andijan

1.03

Nasaf

1.29

Nasaf creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 95 away

1.19

creates per match

1.31

1.26

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Nasaf

1.31

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Nasaf

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Nasaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

58%

Andijan or Nasaf

72%

Draw or Nasaf

70%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

11%

Nasaf wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

64%

Andijan 2+ goals

28%

Andijan 3+ goals

9%

Nasaf 1+ goals

72%

Nasaf 2+ goals

37%

Nasaf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

41%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Andijan scores more

30%

level

28%

Nasaf scores more

42%

Nasaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

S. Mukhammadiev

61'

S. Azimov

64'

A. Komilov← I. Abdiganiyev

72'

B. Abdurahimov← O. Bozorov

72'

Z. Abdurahmatov← S. Muhammadiyev

72'

A. Chávez← A. Amonov

78'

J. Jigauri

82'

M. Stanojević← A. Mozgovoy

84'

S. Sodiqov← S. Abdunabiyev

87'

J. Jigauri

87'

J. Jigauri

90+3'

S. Nurulloyev← S. Nasrullayev

Andijan

Nasaf

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Khomyakov

64'▲A. Komilov←▼I. Abdiganiyev

84'▲S. Sodiqov←▼S. Abdunabiyev

Andijan substitutes

KomilovSodiqovFarkhadovAtkhamovArveladzeBerdiyevErkinovBubanjaGanikhonov

Manager: R. Berdyev

72'▲B. Abdurahimov←▼O. Bozorov

72'▲Z. Abdurahmatov←▼S. Muhammadiyev

72'▲A. Chávez←▼A. Amonov

82'▲M. Stanojević←▼A. Mozgovoy

90+3'▲S. Nurulloyev←▼S. Nasrullayev

Nasaf substitutes

AbdurahimovAbdurahmatovChávezStanojevićNurulloyevNe'matovNarzullayevRahmatovHakimov

Super League: Andijan 0–0 Nasaf

Andijan and Nasaf drew 0-0 in Super League on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.

Andijan vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Andijan 0–0 Nasaf