Andijan 1–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Andijan

FT

1 – 1

Kokand-1912

I. Mamatkazin 90'

K. Ruziev 41'

11/27/2019

Super League · Round 25Stadion Soglom Avlod (Andijon (Andijan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Andijan44%

×Draw27%

Kokand-191229%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

Andijan

1.39

Kokand-1912

1.07

Andijan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

1.19

creates per match

0.88

1.26

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

71%

Andijan or Kokand-1912

73%

Draw or Kokand-1912

56%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

21%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

75%

Andijan 2+ goals

40%

Andijan 3+ goals

16%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

66%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

29%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

60%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Andijan scores more

44%

level

27%

Kokand-1912 scores more

29%

Andijan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. Ruziev

88'

90'

I. Mamatkazin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff