Andijan 1–4 Bunyodkor: Result & Stats

Andijan

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Bunyodkor

D. Rahimqulov 33'

F. Ikramov 67'

M. Mirakhmadov 64'

I. Gbadamosi 52', 30'

8/26/2021

Super League · Round 16Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Andijan37%

×Draw27%

Bunyodkor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchBunyodkor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Andijan

1.27

Bunyodkor

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 96 away

1.19

creates per match

1.29

1.26

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Bunyodkor

1.29

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Bunyodkor

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Bunyodkor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

63%

Andijan or Bunyodkor

73%

Draw or Bunyodkor

63%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

16%

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

72%

Andijan 2+ goals

36%

Andijan 3+ goals

14%

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

72%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

36%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

50%

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Bunyodkor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Andijan scores more

37%

level

27%

Bunyodkor scores more

37%

Andijan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

33'

52'

62'

63'

K. Giyosov← S. Izzatov

63'

S. Rashidov← O. Abdurakhmanov

64'

M. Mirakhmadov

67'

F. Ikramov

70'

A. Gulomov← V. Vasiljev

70'

F. Sohibjonov← A. Ismoilov

70'

M. Toirov← D. Rahimqulov

75'

F. Mirakhmatov← F. Ikramov

75'

S. Erkinov← M. Mirakhmadov

78'

I. Abdulkhaqov← A. Isroilov

78'

S. Gulomjonov← K. Ubaydullayev

81'

M. Kakhramonov← A. Ulmasaliev

89'

E. Adhamov

Andijan

Bunyodkor

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ikramov

▼

Izzatov

Abdullaye

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rahimqulo

Manager: V. Kumykov

70'▲A. Gulomov←▼V. Vasiljev

70'▲F. Sohibjonov←▼A. Ismoilov

70'▲M. Toirov←▼D. Rahimqulov

78'▲I. Abdulkhaqov←▼A. Isroilov

78'▲S. Gulomjonov←▼K. Ubaydullayev

Andijan substitutes

GulomovSohibjonovToirovAbdulkhaqovGulomjonovKomilovOmonovAtakhanov

Manager: S. Maqsudov

63'▲K. Giyosov←▼S. Izzatov

63'▲S. Rashidov←▼O. Abdurakhmanov

75'▲F. Mirakhmatov←▼F. Ikramov

75'▲S. Erkinov←▼M. Mirakhmadov

81'▲M. Kakhramonov←▼A. Ulmasaliev

Bunyodkor substitutes

GiyosovRashidovMirakhmatovErkinovKakhramonovPirmuhamedovAzizxo'jayevRahmonaliyevSafaev

Super League: Andijan 1–4 Bunyodkor

Bunyodkor beat Andijan 4-1 in Super League on August 26, 2021.

Goals: I. Gbadamosi (30', 52'), D. Rahimqulov (33'), M. Mirakhmadov (64'), F. Ikramov (67').

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.

Andijan vs Bunyodkor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Andijan 1–4 Bunyodkor